…la crisis hipotecaria. Se ha presentado en forma de impagos de hipotecas de alto riesgo en EE.UU. (lo que además ayudará a empeorar la imagen que de dicho país tenemos en España) y, pese al mensaje tranquilizador de ZP al Rey (¡qué sabrá ZP de crisis económicas si apenas sabe…), se ha extendido por todo el mundo. Sin embargo, con el objetivo de que no cunda el pánico en el mercado, lo que multiplicaría sus efectos sobre las economías, su llegada ha sido apenas cubierta por los medios de comunicación.
El origen de todo se encuentra en el boom inmobiliario sufrido en EE.UU. hace algunos años, especialmente en Arizona, Florida y California. La gran competencia en el sector bancario hizo que se concedieran hipotecas a clientes de dudosa calidad crediticia (con pocas posibilidades de pago) y el posterior aumento de los tipos de interés no ha hecho sino confirmar las sospechas iniciales, llevando a varias de estas entidades a la quiebra.
Desafortunadamente, aquí no acaba todo. Las entidades que han concedido estas hipotecas de baja calidad han emitido a su vez activos financieros, con las propias hipotecas como garantía. Como pasa siempre en esta vida, a más riesgo, más rentabilidad, de modo que muchos fondos de inversión de todo el mundo han comprado estos activos titulizados (la titulización ha estado muy de moda en el negocio bancario en los últimos años, dada su rentabilidad cuando las cosas vienen de cara; del riesgo cuando vienen mal dadas se acordaban menos sus más acérrimos defensores), tratando de este modo de incrementar su beneficio trimestre tras trimestre.
Cuando los poseedores de los activos titulizados se han dado cuenta de lo que se avecinaba, han intentado venderlos o conseguir un préstamo para amortizarlos, descubriendo entonces que ninguna de las dos opciones funcionaba. Los bancos centrales (en especial el BCE, con inyecciones mastodónticas de liquidez) han paliado esta cierta discriminación en el mercado interbancario. Pero todo de una manera algo oculta, sin mucha publicidad en los medios de comunicación y mandado muchos mensajes tranquilizadores.
A todo esto, la venta de pisos en España ha empezado su ralentización, no tanto en precios sino en demanda. A los tipos de interés y precios actuales, la demanda de pisos se satura con poco que se ponga a la venta y el problema es que hay mucho a la venta (no es lo mismo una hipoteca sobre 300.000 € a un interés del 3% que al 5%). El siguiente paso es la bajada de precios, puesto que la vivienda no es una excepción a la ley de la oferta y la demanda. Además, habrá que ver cómo reaccionan las familias al incremento ininterrumpido del Euribor (en este sentido, se aprecia un incremento en el número de pisos en el centro de las ciudades con elevada hipoteca que se ponen a la venta simplemente porque sus dueños no pueden hacer frente a la hipoteca).
Para quien ya tenga una hipoteca vinculada al Euribor quedan pocas soluciones, salvo apretarse el cinturón, agachar la cabeza y tirar hacia delante. Podría tratar de cambiar el tipo de interés de variable a fijo pero como los bancos no se chupan el dedo, no será tarea fácil ni favorable a sus intereses. Mi solución preferida para quienes aún tienen una cierta capacidad de maniobra es endeudarse en yenes japoneses. El tipo de interés del yen se sitúa por debajo del 0,5% y, pese a las comisiones bancarias y al tipo de cambio euro-yen, compensa con creces.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Monday, August 20, 2007
My first time in the former USSR
One of my days in Helsinki was devoted to a day trip by ferry to Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, which for 60 years belonged to the Soviet Union. That was going to be the first time in my life I was going to take a ferry and my first time in the land of the Soviets as well. However, due to political reasons, all Soviet reference has been removed from Tallinn and even the former KGB headquarters have no evidence of their former use.
In the ferry, I could feel myself as in Titanic, since the ship was huge. Views of the city, with sea wind in my face, as we were approaching were terrific; one of the best in these five days of August. Traffic between Tallinn and Helsinki is quite intense and it was relatively easy to watch other ships from my ferry. In the return trip, Tallinn-Helsinki, most of the Finnish were taking with them a lot of alcoholic drinks, what also caught my attention.
Tallinn’s Old Town has remained unchanged from the medieval time, with small updates and adjustments, such as sewer system. What lies behind it are the City Walls, which have been protecting the city from attacks for centuries and have helped to save the medieval old town. The streets are with paved stones, what made my ankles suffer too much. Going for a walk there makes us go back in time and forget about our XXI century commodities.
I recommend a visit to the Dominican Monastery. If you have read “The name of the rose”, you will feel like Fray William of Baskertville for a few minutes. The visit is not very expensive and even the guide is “peculiar”. The monastery dates from the XIII century and has not changed much since then.
Estonia, although member of the EU, does not still have euro as currency (but Estonian kroon). Therefore, I expected to get some coins but I was disappointed because there were no “kroon” coins; they even have 2 kroon (approximately 13 cents) notes!
To sum up, visit Tallinn too, if possible by ferry.
In the ferry, I could feel myself as in Titanic, since the ship was huge. Views of the city, with sea wind in my face, as we were approaching were terrific; one of the best in these five days of August. Traffic between Tallinn and Helsinki is quite intense and it was relatively easy to watch other ships from my ferry. In the return trip, Tallinn-Helsinki, most of the Finnish were taking with them a lot of alcoholic drinks, what also caught my attention.
Tallinn’s Old Town has remained unchanged from the medieval time, with small updates and adjustments, such as sewer system. What lies behind it are the City Walls, which have been protecting the city from attacks for centuries and have helped to save the medieval old town. The streets are with paved stones, what made my ankles suffer too much. Going for a walk there makes us go back in time and forget about our XXI century commodities.
I recommend a visit to the Dominican Monastery. If you have read “The name of the rose”, you will feel like Fray William of Baskertville for a few minutes. The visit is not very expensive and even the guide is “peculiar”. The monastery dates from the XIII century and has not changed much since then.Estonia, although member of the EU, does not still have euro as currency (but Estonian kroon). Therefore, I expected to get some coins but I was disappointed because there were no “kroon” coins; they even have 2 kroon (approximately 13 cents) notes!
To sum up, visit Tallinn too, if possible by ferry.
A town between lakes
The city of Tampere, around 150 km north from Helsinki, lays between two lakes: Näsijärvi and Pyhäjärvi. It has been quite an industrial city which in the last years has turned all the industrial premises into cultural centres. According to the Tampere Tourist Office, the cathedral has been voted as the most beautiful Finnish church. Another one of its attraction is the Lenin Museum (???).
It also has Näsinneula, the highest tower in Scandinavia, which provides amazing views of the two lakes. On top of it, there is a restaurant, quite posh at a first glance, but when paying the bill, it turns out not to be so posh. I strongly recommend having lunch or dinner there, with such a view. Besides, the restaurant turns and completes a tour in approximately 45 minutes, which also is the average time our meal will need.
In the narrowest place between the two lakes, we have Pyynikki, the highest ridge in the world. It is a beautiful forest, with a lot of paths and with an observation tower quite impressing too. Tampere’s people love going for a walk there when the sun shines and some of them even have a bath in the southern lake, Pyhäjärvi.
I booked my train ticket back to Tampere one hour later than I wished, by mistake and then I had some “free time” to spend walking in the city centre. I discovered then a cool concert in a park, with a small jazz orchestra performing music from TV series. After that, I went to a bookshop and started to look into the books, pretending I can read Finnish (which is, obviously, false). Two writers were signing their own books in the library but I did not dare to ask them for their signature in a book I have no chance, ever if I lived ten lives, to understand.
In conclusion, Tampere, the most northern place I have ever been to, is worth a visit. Cool place.
It also has Näsinneula, the highest tower in Scandinavia, which provides amazing views of the two lakes. On top of it, there is a restaurant, quite posh at a first glance, but when paying the bill, it turns out not to be so posh. I strongly recommend having lunch or dinner there, with such a view. Besides, the restaurant turns and completes a tour in approximately 45 minutes, which also is the average time our meal will need.
In the narrowest place between the two lakes, we have Pyynikki, the highest ridge in the world. It is a beautiful forest, with a lot of paths and with an observation tower quite impressing too. Tampere’s people love going for a walk there when the sun shines and some of them even have a bath in the southern lake, Pyhäjärvi.
I booked my train ticket back to Tampere one hour later than I wished, by mistake and then I had some “free time” to spend walking in the city centre. I discovered then a cool concert in a park, with a small jazz orchestra performing music from TV series. After that, I went to a bookshop and started to look into the books, pretending I can read Finnish (which is, obviously, false). Two writers were signing their own books in the library but I did not dare to ask them for their signature in a book I have no chance, ever if I lived ten lives, to understand.
In conclusion, Tampere, the most northern place I have ever been to, is worth a visit. Cool place.
Antonio in f***ing Finland
That is how a friend of mine defined my holidays this year. In this and in the following posts I will disclose the highlights of my five days in Finland, starting with Helsinki.
The very first thing that shocked me was that my flight from Madrid to Helsinki was full of people from the Far East and full of tourists going to the Far East. The reason to this, as I subsequently discovered, is that flying from Helsinki to the Far East is shorter than from Central Europe since Helsinki is more in the north and then maybe an hour is saved.
Helsinki’s Lutheran cathedral is also worth a visit. However, since I am more used to catholic cathedrals, full of ornament and gold, I felt a bit disappointed since the interior of the Lutheran cathedral was certainly practical and functional. The Orthodox Cathedral was more in line with my expectations from a cathedral.
I also visited the Church excavated in the stone, which was full of Japanese tourists as well. Then, by mistake, I arrived to a beach. Yeah, Helsinki has its own beach, although none was having a bath; the beach seems to be only for sunbathing. Kallio’s Church is also worth mentioning, as it is on top of Kallio’s hill and it can be seen from almost every place in the city.
I had a sauna for the second time of my life and I must admit I felt a bit disappointed by the experience. I could only stay in the sauna for 10 minutes. The room was at 70ºC and I felt as if I were being boiled alive…, what is not a grateful sensation actually.
My favourite place in Helsinki is called “Linnunlaunlu”, and it is on the right side of Töölö. It is an amazing place, with old houses and a wonderful café (although I took a Sprite), with an amazing view of the city. Please visit it!!!!
Overall, Helsinki is an outstanding place to be (one of my very favourites) if the sun shines. It has water everywhere, life is easy for cyclists, cultural offer is quite complete… But just try to imagine it in winter (-10ºC and four hours of sunlight per day); yeah, it changes a little bit.
The very first thing that shocked me was that my flight from Madrid to Helsinki was full of people from the Far East and full of tourists going to the Far East. The reason to this, as I subsequently discovered, is that flying from Helsinki to the Far East is shorter than from Central Europe since Helsinki is more in the north and then maybe an hour is saved.
Helsinki’s Lutheran cathedral is also worth a visit. However, since I am more used to catholic cathedrals, full of ornament and gold, I felt a bit disappointed since the interior of the Lutheran cathedral was certainly practical and functional. The Orthodox Cathedral was more in line with my expectations from a cathedral.
I also visited the Church excavated in the stone, which was full of Japanese tourists as well. Then, by mistake, I arrived to a beach. Yeah, Helsinki has its own beach, although none was having a bath; the beach seems to be only for sunbathing. Kallio’s Church is also worth mentioning, as it is on top of Kallio’s hill and it can be seen from almost every place in the city.I had a sauna for the second time of my life and I must admit I felt a bit disappointed by the experience. I could only stay in the sauna for 10 minutes. The room was at 70ºC and I felt as if I were being boiled alive…, what is not a grateful sensation actually.
My favourite place in Helsinki is called “Linnunlaunlu”, and it is on the right side of Töölö. It is an amazing place, with old houses and a wonderful café (although I took a Sprite), with an amazing view of the city. Please visit it!!!!
Overall, Helsinki is an outstanding place to be (one of my very favourites) if the sun shines. It has water everywhere, life is easy for cyclists, cultural offer is quite complete… But just try to imagine it in winter (-10ºC and four hours of sunlight per day); yeah, it changes a little bit.
Monday, August 06, 2007
Was ich von Sommer 2007 erwarte
Freitag habe ich meine Urlaub 2007 begonnen und ich möchte meine drei hauptsächliche Hoffnungen für diese Tage hier aufzählen.
Zuerst sollte ich eine finale Entscheidung über das EFRAGs Angebot treffen: nach Bruxelles mindestens für einen Jahr umzuziehen oder in Madrid bleiben. Das würde auch bedeuten, allein und unabhängig in Ausland zu wohnen. Mein Arbeitsgeber muss sich dafür entscheiden, dass er die 22.000 Zahlung mir vergibt, falls ich meine Arbeit verlasse. Klar es zu sagen; ich weiss nicht, weder wo ich im Oktober wohnen werde noch wo ich wohnen möchte.
Dann muss ich auch ein bisschen ausruhen, um die Arbeit und alles zu vergessen. Ich werde fünf Tage in Helsinki (mit Ausflüge nach Tallinn und Tampere) es versuchen. In Helsinki werde ich ganz allein bleiben weil niemand aus Spanien mit mir kommt und meine finnische Bekannte Vesa-Vile auch in Urlaub sein wird. Ich hoffe ein schönes, wunderbares und ruhiges Land zu entdecken (von meinem Zimmer in Hotel Hilton, je, je, je). Nach Finnland werde ich eine Woche in Ablanque, das Dorf meiner Mutter, mit Freunde und Verwandte verbringen.
Sommer 2007 sollte auch eine Lösung zu meinem Herz bringen. Ich weiss es nicht, was hier zu schreiben, weil ich nicht weiss, was ich für mein Herz will. Es sieht es aus, als ob ich Zeit bräuchte: Zeit um meinen beliebsten Magnet zu vergessen oder Zeit um eine neue Mädchen zu finden. Unglücklicherweise kann (will) ich den Magnet nicht so einfach vergessen: sie bleibt immer nah zu meinem Herz und sie spielt noch eine Rolle in meinem Leben (spiele ich etwas in ihrem Leben?). Ich fühle auch zu müde, um eine neue Suche von Null zu starten. Vielleicht ist nur Ruhe was ich brauche...
Bis heute ist Sommer 2007 nicht so gut gewesen, da nichts Besonders passiert hat. Aber alles wird sicherlich verbessern.
Zuerst sollte ich eine finale Entscheidung über das EFRAGs Angebot treffen: nach Bruxelles mindestens für einen Jahr umzuziehen oder in Madrid bleiben. Das würde auch bedeuten, allein und unabhängig in Ausland zu wohnen. Mein Arbeitsgeber muss sich dafür entscheiden, dass er die 22.000 Zahlung mir vergibt, falls ich meine Arbeit verlasse. Klar es zu sagen; ich weiss nicht, weder wo ich im Oktober wohnen werde noch wo ich wohnen möchte.
Dann muss ich auch ein bisschen ausruhen, um die Arbeit und alles zu vergessen. Ich werde fünf Tage in Helsinki (mit Ausflüge nach Tallinn und Tampere) es versuchen. In Helsinki werde ich ganz allein bleiben weil niemand aus Spanien mit mir kommt und meine finnische Bekannte Vesa-Vile auch in Urlaub sein wird. Ich hoffe ein schönes, wunderbares und ruhiges Land zu entdecken (von meinem Zimmer in Hotel Hilton, je, je, je). Nach Finnland werde ich eine Woche in Ablanque, das Dorf meiner Mutter, mit Freunde und Verwandte verbringen.
Sommer 2007 sollte auch eine Lösung zu meinem Herz bringen. Ich weiss es nicht, was hier zu schreiben, weil ich nicht weiss, was ich für mein Herz will. Es sieht es aus, als ob ich Zeit bräuchte: Zeit um meinen beliebsten Magnet zu vergessen oder Zeit um eine neue Mädchen zu finden. Unglücklicherweise kann (will) ich den Magnet nicht so einfach vergessen: sie bleibt immer nah zu meinem Herz und sie spielt noch eine Rolle in meinem Leben (spiele ich etwas in ihrem Leben?). Ich fühle auch zu müde, um eine neue Suche von Null zu starten. Vielleicht ist nur Ruhe was ich brauche...Bis heute ist Sommer 2007 nicht so gut gewesen, da nichts Besonders passiert hat. Aber alles wird sicherlich verbessern.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)