Ho visto che i politici parlano molto spesso sull'economia, facendo delle promesse sul futuro e parlando come se fossero grandissimi esperti mondiale sul tema. Ma tutto è falso. Se si ascoltano con attenzioni i loro discorsi, è facile scoprire che soltanto dicono parole lunghe e vuote, senza significato e senza comprometersi veramente. Se le loro previsioni (spesso troppo ottimiste) non diventano realità, troveranno una scusa per non avere capito bene il futuro.
Ma è anche un errore pensare che gli economisti sapono che cose ci porterà il futuro. Un anno fa, un economista molto importante della banca dove ho il mio conto ha detto che le azioni di Citigroup dovrebbero essere comprati sui 32 dollari, Goldman Sachs diceva che l'olio avrebbe un prezzo di 200 dollari in decembre 2008, il ministro spagnolo di Economia ha fatto il budget di 2009 con una crescita del 3%, e così via...
Nella vita nessuno può sapere cosa succederà nel futuro, è lo stesso se si usano il tarocco o modelli econometrici, la securità piena sul futuro non può essere ottenuta: ci sarà sempre lo sconosciuto. Quindi, tutti quelli che dichiarano sapere con precisione cosa accaderà nel futuro (alcuni economisti) possono diventare pericolosi. Quelli che parlano sul futuro con falsa sicurezza (i politici) sono anche pericolosi.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Between planes and other stuff
I went with my friend Alberto last Saturday to Speyer, where I met my friend Maciej, who has recommended me for a long time a visit to the Techniches Museum. There you can see an impressive collection of machines, from planes to cars, from a submarine to train engines,...
But, undoubtedly, the "prima donna" of the museum is the Boeing 747, hanging around 25 metres from the ground. You can go inside it, inside every corner in the plane and you can even walk on one wing (that is what I am doing in the picture below). When you finish your visit, you can go down using the stairs or a slide (something extremely funny, which I tried four times). But before and after visiting it, the same question comes to my mind: how the hell they have taken such a huge thing up there...
But also the Antonov deserves a visit: after all, it was the largest cargo plane in the world and it has this strange charm of the Soviet Union days. If you watch the video inside, you understand why it needed five pilots: it was amazingly unstable for a plane. There are some fighters (see picture below), a ship, two helicopters (one of them huge) and a submarine. Wow, what could I say about the submarine? It was designed for 28 people and one really feels claustrofobic inside, there is not much space for anything, everything is together and there are not many exits. I just imagine living there surrounded by the ocean and I suddenly begin to love my job.
But Speyer also has a remarkable city centre, around the Maximilianstrasse, which heads up to the cathedral, one of the most impressive I have ever been (for example, much better than the cathedral in Mainz). To sum up, Speyer is an unknown place outside Germany but you will really enjoy it if you decide to spend there a day.
But, undoubtedly, the "prima donna" of the museum is the Boeing 747, hanging around 25 metres from the ground. You can go inside it, inside every corner in the plane and you can even walk on one wing (that is what I am doing in the picture below). When you finish your visit, you can go down using the stairs or a slide (something extremely funny, which I tried four times). But before and after visiting it, the same question comes to my mind: how the hell they have taken such a huge thing up there...
But also the Antonov deserves a visit: after all, it was the largest cargo plane in the world and it has this strange charm of the Soviet Union days. If you watch the video inside, you understand why it needed five pilots: it was amazingly unstable for a plane. There are some fighters (see picture below), a ship, two helicopters (one of them huge) and a submarine. Wow, what could I say about the submarine? It was designed for 28 people and one really feels claustrofobic inside, there is not much space for anything, everything is together and there are not many exits. I just imagine living there surrounded by the ocean and I suddenly begin to love my job.
But Speyer also has a remarkable city centre, around the Maximilianstrasse, which heads up to the cathedral, one of the most impressive I have ever been (for example, much better than the cathedral in Mainz). To sum up, Speyer is an unknown place outside Germany but you will really enjoy it if you decide to spend there a day.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Éramos pocos...
... y parió la abuela.
Cuando ya parecía que la crisis que ha venido sacudiendo los mercados financieros en los últimos 18 meses nos había mostrado todas sus cartas, nos encontramos con lo inesperado: una estafa piramidal en los elitistas clubes de inversión de Nueva York y Florida. Es de locos, la verdad. Aunque alguna conclusión hay que sacar de esta estafa y yo, en este corto período de tiempo, he sacado dos:
1) La SEC no sirve como organismo supervisor, no se entera de nada de lo que pasa a su alrededor. Me resulta increíble que este sea el regulador de la bolsa norteamericana. Igual se la dan bien otras cosas, pero lo que es supervisar, la verdad es que no, no es lo suyo. Alguien la tendrá que pedir responsabilidades antes o después, digo yo.
2) Me río de los que decían que la estafa piramidal (muy parecida a Fórum Filatélico y Afinsa) se produce solo por los reducidos conocimientos financieros de quien formaban parte de ella. Pues en este caso, nos encontramos con algunas de las mayores fortunas de Norteamérica, bancos europeos,... Vamos, gente que parece saber algo de las finanzas. Y que encima se consideraban privilegiados al formar parte de ella. Lo que se debe haber reído el señor Madoff en su casa todos estos años, la verdad.
Esto es lo último que ha pasado lo inmediato, pero desde mi última entrada han pasado algunas otras cosas que me gustaría, al menos, mencionar.
La primera es la ayuda que el gobierno norteamericano ha dado a Citigroup. Hace un año aproximadamente, Citigroup presumía delante de los bancos europeos de que apenas había reconocido pérdidas por los activos tóxicos de su balance, cuando sin rubor alguno las reconocía fuera de balance y latentes. El resultado es que un año después ha tenido que acudir llorando a los brazos de papá Estado. En este punto, ya he dejado de preguntarme qué papel juegan los organismos reguladores norteamericanos (SEC, FDIC,...) porque veo que no pasan de meras comparsas embutidos en caros trajes de diseño.
La ayuda al maltrecho sector del automóvil norteamericano me ha proporcionado algún que otro momento de felicidad. Resultó patético ver a tanto CEO balbucear cuando les espetaron en el Congreso de los EE.UU. por qué habían ido a esa cita en su jet privado, dado que sus empresas están tan necesitadas de dinero. Para la siguiente cita, acudieron todos en prototipos de coches eléctricos (o similares). ¿Qué será lo siguiente? ¿Ir en tren? ¿Hacer una teleconferencia con Skype? El amor propio de alguno de estos CEO ha sufrido demasiado con esto y eso es algo que me encanta, para qué lo voy a negar.
No quisiera pasar por alto la metedura de pata (¿o era intencionada?) de Goldman Sachs, hace unos meses, cuando anunciaba que el petróleo alcanzaría los 200 dólares, culpando de ello a los chinos (los pobres), por utilizar tanto petróleo. Pues bien, hoy en día el barril se encuentra por debajo de los 50 dólares y no parece que vaya a dispararse de precio en el corto plazo. Esto me deja dos conclusiones respecto a la predicción de Goldman Sachs: 1) no se enteran de nada y basan sus predicciones en hechos erróneos (si es así, se pueden juntar con los amiguitos de la SEC mencionados antes); 2) tienen algún interés oculto, en forma de derivados, para encarecer artificialmente el petróleo y así apuntarse jugosos beneficios (a esto se le llama especular).
Pues creo que ya está, no se me ocurre nadie más contra quien escribir por ahora. Así que mejor lo voy dejando, que esta entrada ya es demasiado larga. A ver lo que me encuentro la próxima vez que escriba sobre economía.
Cuando ya parecía que la crisis que ha venido sacudiendo los mercados financieros en los últimos 18 meses nos había mostrado todas sus cartas, nos encontramos con lo inesperado: una estafa piramidal en los elitistas clubes de inversión de Nueva York y Florida. Es de locos, la verdad. Aunque alguna conclusión hay que sacar de esta estafa y yo, en este corto período de tiempo, he sacado dos:
1) La SEC no sirve como organismo supervisor, no se entera de nada de lo que pasa a su alrededor. Me resulta increíble que este sea el regulador de la bolsa norteamericana. Igual se la dan bien otras cosas, pero lo que es supervisar, la verdad es que no, no es lo suyo. Alguien la tendrá que pedir responsabilidades antes o después, digo yo.
2) Me río de los que decían que la estafa piramidal (muy parecida a Fórum Filatélico y Afinsa) se produce solo por los reducidos conocimientos financieros de quien formaban parte de ella. Pues en este caso, nos encontramos con algunas de las mayores fortunas de Norteamérica, bancos europeos,... Vamos, gente que parece saber algo de las finanzas. Y que encima se consideraban privilegiados al formar parte de ella. Lo que se debe haber reído el señor Madoff en su casa todos estos años, la verdad.
Esto es lo último que ha pasado lo inmediato, pero desde mi última entrada han pasado algunas otras cosas que me gustaría, al menos, mencionar.
La primera es la ayuda que el gobierno norteamericano ha dado a Citigroup. Hace un año aproximadamente, Citigroup presumía delante de los bancos europeos de que apenas había reconocido pérdidas por los activos tóxicos de su balance, cuando sin rubor alguno las reconocía fuera de balance y latentes. El resultado es que un año después ha tenido que acudir llorando a los brazos de papá Estado. En este punto, ya he dejado de preguntarme qué papel juegan los organismos reguladores norteamericanos (SEC, FDIC,...) porque veo que no pasan de meras comparsas embutidos en caros trajes de diseño.
La ayuda al maltrecho sector del automóvil norteamericano me ha proporcionado algún que otro momento de felicidad. Resultó patético ver a tanto CEO balbucear cuando les espetaron en el Congreso de los EE.UU. por qué habían ido a esa cita en su jet privado, dado que sus empresas están tan necesitadas de dinero. Para la siguiente cita, acudieron todos en prototipos de coches eléctricos (o similares). ¿Qué será lo siguiente? ¿Ir en tren? ¿Hacer una teleconferencia con Skype? El amor propio de alguno de estos CEO ha sufrido demasiado con esto y eso es algo que me encanta, para qué lo voy a negar.
No quisiera pasar por alto la metedura de pata (¿o era intencionada?) de Goldman Sachs, hace unos meses, cuando anunciaba que el petróleo alcanzaría los 200 dólares, culpando de ello a los chinos (los pobres), por utilizar tanto petróleo. Pues bien, hoy en día el barril se encuentra por debajo de los 50 dólares y no parece que vaya a dispararse de precio en el corto plazo. Esto me deja dos conclusiones respecto a la predicción de Goldman Sachs: 1) no se enteran de nada y basan sus predicciones en hechos erróneos (si es así, se pueden juntar con los amiguitos de la SEC mencionados antes); 2) tienen algún interés oculto, en forma de derivados, para encarecer artificialmente el petróleo y así apuntarse jugosos beneficios (a esto se le llama especular).
Pues creo que ya está, no se me ocurre nadie más contra quien escribir por ahora. Así que mejor lo voy dejando, que esta entrada ya es demasiado larga. A ver lo que me encuentro la próxima vez que escriba sobre economía.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Half Italy and I in Vienna
First of all, in case Mr. Berlusconi was worried last Saturday, I must bring some important news to him. Silvio, do not worry too much if the streets were empty in Rome, Milano or Neapel; half of the population of your country was that day in Vienna. It was impossible not to listen to any word in Italian while wandering through its streets. I think I saw more Italians than in the rest of my life (what does not imply anything negative, it is just a fact).
Once done the duty, I must admit that Vienna is one of my favourites cities in Europe. One feels there something special, the city tells you that it is not a city like any other, no, it is an imperial city. The Ring is simply amazing, all the buildings around it deserve a visit: the town hall, the Burgtheater, the Hofburg, the two twin museums, the Volksgarten, the Votivkirche,... Besides, in this time of the year, Vienna is full of Christmas markets, being the one in the town hall the largest one, but not necessarily the cosiest.
Everytime I take the tram in Vienna I cannot help laughing with the recorded voice announcing the stops. It is a male voice (while in the cities I visit it is usually a female voice) and has something laughable in its tone. The way it announces the stops is really remarkable, although not always understandable, believe me.
Schönbrunn palace and gardens are also a nice place to visit. They are so big, I mean, but really, really big. I always wonder in such huge buildings who is in charge of the cleaning, because he/she must have quite a tough work. In the picture below, you can see the Gloriette from the palace itself, an amazing view. And coming back to the comment in my first paragraph, half (or more) of the people you see in this picture are Italians...
Ah, yeah, I went to Vienna to attend a seminar on IFRS and Basel II, but it is not so important after all.
Once done the duty, I must admit that Vienna is one of my favourites cities in Europe. One feels there something special, the city tells you that it is not a city like any other, no, it is an imperial city. The Ring is simply amazing, all the buildings around it deserve a visit: the town hall, the Burgtheater, the Hofburg, the two twin museums, the Volksgarten, the Votivkirche,... Besides, in this time of the year, Vienna is full of Christmas markets, being the one in the town hall the largest one, but not necessarily the cosiest.Everytime I take the tram in Vienna I cannot help laughing with the recorded voice announcing the stops. It is a male voice (while in the cities I visit it is usually a female voice) and has something laughable in its tone. The way it announces the stops is really remarkable, although not always understandable, believe me.
Schönbrunn palace and gardens are also a nice place to visit. They are so big, I mean, but really, really big. I always wonder in such huge buildings who is in charge of the cleaning, because he/she must have quite a tough work. In the picture below, you can see the Gloriette from the palace itself, an amazing view. And coming back to the comment in my first paragraph, half (or more) of the people you see in this picture are Italians...
Ah, yeah, I went to Vienna to attend a seminar on IFRS and Basel II, but it is not so important after all.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Snow and taxis
Last week I was in Luxembourg for working purposes and I cannot find a better way of summarizing what I did than with the title of this post. When I landed on Monday night, we were in the middle of a snow storm and the airport was completely white. That is the explanation of the snow. The explanation of the taxis is because in less than 24 hours I took six: from home to the airport in Frankfurt, from the airport in Luxembourg to the hotel, from the hotel to the meeting, from the meeting to the city centre, from the city centre to the airport, and from the airport in Frankfurt to home.
But there are more to write about this intense day in Luxembourg. First of all, the place of my meeting was in the third floor of a modern building which in the lower floor has... a shopping centre! I cannot believe it, but it is true, a shopping centre with Auchan.
The historical centre of Luxembourg is nice for walking as it lays in some hills and it still has part of the ancient wall which protected the city from invaders. Maybe as a consequence of the slopes, I could not see a single cyclist in Luxembourg (something quite common in Germany). The other reason behind this fact is that everybody in Luxembourg is rich enough as to own a car. The cathedral is also remarkable, although when one has visited Cologne's cathedral, everything else seems to be quite simple indeed.
Luxembourg ressembles in a certain way Andorra, as both of them seem to have been isolated places in the past, ideal for smugglers, which now make their living dressed with expensive suits and working in banks. I could walk along the headquarters of Fortis Bank (je, je, je) and I watched some advertisement in the airport of a Icelandic bank (je, je, je, again).
But there are more to write about this intense day in Luxembourg. First of all, the place of my meeting was in the third floor of a modern building which in the lower floor has... a shopping centre! I cannot believe it, but it is true, a shopping centre with Auchan.The historical centre of Luxembourg is nice for walking as it lays in some hills and it still has part of the ancient wall which protected the city from invaders. Maybe as a consequence of the slopes, I could not see a single cyclist in Luxembourg (something quite common in Germany). The other reason behind this fact is that everybody in Luxembourg is rich enough as to own a car. The cathedral is also remarkable, although when one has visited Cologne's cathedral, everything else seems to be quite simple indeed.
Luxembourg ressembles in a certain way Andorra, as both of them seem to have been isolated places in the past, ideal for smugglers, which now make their living dressed with expensive suits and working in banks. I could walk along the headquarters of Fortis Bank (je, je, je) and I watched some advertisement in the airport of a Icelandic bank (je, je, je, again).
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