Sobredosis de coches

El fin de semana pasado estuve visitando la Feria del Automóvil de Fráncfort, que se celebra cada dos años y que es una de las más importantes del sector. Es, además, la segunda feria más importante que se organiza en Fráncfort, tras la Feria del Libro. La feria estuvo abierta al público en general los cinco últimos días, lo que hizo que, especialmente durante el fin de semana, estuviera llena de gente.

Como casi todo el mundo, mi primera intención era visitar los stands de aquellas marcas más alejadas de mis posibilidades: Ferrari, Lamborghini, Porsche,... En esta ocasión, se puede decir que seguí a la masa, con lo que me encontré con que, por una parte, no era posible acercarse ni tocar los coches, además de que la aglomeración hacía insoportable estar en el pabellón. Resultaba curioso como cinco metros más allá no había ningún problema en un stand de una marca con menos glamour.
Parada obligada fueron también los stands de Honda y Peugeot, por aquello de que son los coches que ahora tengo. En el stand de Honda, aparte de comprobar cómo el Honda CRV no ha cambiado absolutamente nada en dos años, se me cayó el móvil debajo de un coche de exposición (Honda Civic) y tuve que hacer un pequeño alarde para recuperarlo, como se puede ver en la fotografía, je, je, je.
Los stands de marcas alemanas estaban también atestados de gente. La cola a la entrada del pabellón de Audi nos hizo desistir pronto, pero tampoco BMW o Mercedes tenían mucho espacio libre.

Así que nos dedicamos a otras marcas menos atractivas en teoría, pero que también tenían cosas que ofrecer. En Subaru tenían un chasis transparente que permitía ver el interior del coche con el motor, el chasis, el depósito de gasolina,... Volvo trajo un barco de la Volvo Ocean Race y era posible subirse a él y tener la sensación de navegar por Fráncfort. El stand de Infinity tenía una réplica del Red Bull campeón del mundo de Formula 1 del año pasado, lo mismo que Renault. En Renault y en Volkswagen tenían un prototipo de una especie de coche eléctrico de una plaza, más parecido a una moto que a un coche. En el stand de Suzuki, tenían además motos, como se puede ver en la fotografía.

Y esto es lo que puedo contar de la Feria del Automóvil de Fráncfort. La verdad es que no llevaba ningún tipo de objetivo a la misma, más allá del de disfrutar y ver lo máximo posible. Creo que conseguí con creces mi objetivo ya que esa misma noche, cuando cerraba los ojos, se me aparecían coches flotando... Ya lo he superado, creo.

Au-revoir REM

Il y a deux jours REM a announcé leur séparation, après plus de veingt ans ensemble. Les dernièrs ans ont été aussi très difficiles, une fois les grandes chansons étaient déjà ici et l'âge tombait sans pause. REM a été une modèle pour groupes comment Nirvana ou Pearl Jam, grace à leur comportement et la tranquilité avec laquelle ont accepté la popularité.

Mais REM est plus qu'un groupe de rock de comportamente impecable. Ils ont été mon première groupe de rock (grace essentiellement à deux Alfonsos, mon cousin et le collegue dans les Salesianos). On pouvait dire que ils m'ont accompagné dans les dernières veingt ans: da quand j'était un projet d'adulte jusqu'à aujourd'hui. Combien des jours j'ai etudié avec leur musique au second plan? Il n'est pas facile accepter qu'une pièce aussi importante de ma jeunesse est allée pour non retourner jamais.Comme hommage, ici sont leur mieux dix chansons, sans ordre, seulement comment ils arrivent dans ma tête:

• Losing my religion (Out of time). Parmi leurs premières hits et sans doute un hymne.
• Everybody hurts (Automatic for the people). Un autre hymne, un chant contre la tristesse et la dépression. Émouvant.
• It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (Document). Une chanson foue et aussi très positif.
• What's the frequency Kenneth? (Monster). Qui avait dit che REM ne pouvait pas avoir des puissantes guitares électriques?
• You are the everything (Green). Simple, mais émouvant et avec beaucoup de talent.
• Be mine (Automatic for the people). Un hymne parfait, imbattable, sensible: un vrai plaisir.
• Shiny happy people (Out of time). Une autre chanson foue de REM, aussi plein d'énergie positive.
• At my most beautiful (Up). Une chanson d'amour qui montre que REM aussi peux faire des grandes ballades.
• Bad day (In time: The best of REM: 1988 - 2003). Une chanson dans le même style de "It's the end of the world...". Fou mais j'ai l'aime.
• Man on the moon (Automatic for the people). Plein de rhytme et de force. Avec des autres chansons elle fait de Automatic for the people une classique indispensable.

REM, Stipe et amis, merci pour entrer dans ma tête via les oreilles.

First experience in Poland

This week I have spent two days in Wroclaw (Breslau in German), in Poland, in a seminar about financial regulation. Wroclaw, which belongs to the Silesian region and which was a German city until recently, was totally destroyed after the Second World War and its population actually suffered the consequences of the war (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wroclaw#World_War_II_and_afterwards). Nowadays, it is one of the most dynamic cities in Poland (the forth one in terms of population).As also happens in Bratislava (and probably in many other cities in former communist countries), Wroclaw is architectonically full of contrasts: ten metres away from the modern buildings made of iron and glass, there are grey blocks of houses from the communist years, which in most cases are pleading for some rehabilitation. It is a rather strange phenomenon, but it may just highlight the quick transition from communism to capitalism in these countries. More shocking for me was hearing the dubbing of films on the TV: the same male voice makes the dubbing into Polish of all voices, regardless whether they are male or female characters. I guess this is also coming from the past years but, believe me, it is quite an experience.Apart for that, Wroclaw is watered everywhere by the Oder River, which later determines the border between Germany and Poland. The silhoutte of the cathedral (see picture above), with its two towers, is a classic image of the city. It is also worth a visit to the Town Hall and the square surrounded it, probably one of the largest one in Europe. The city is also full of churches (made with bricks, not with stone), what shows the strong religious devotion of the Polish. The city centre shows a lot of coloured houses and a walk is quite pleasant there. In a more banal domain, the football stadium was opened just the day before my arrival and some games of the incoming Euro2012 will be played there.Going to the conference itself, there is not much to tell. It was attended by more than 300 people from all around Europe. It was a bit more boring than I expected. Nevertheless, I could study the behaviour of some of my fellow attendants. For example, I could observe how Spanish bankers were easily to identify: they are already following the look created by Mario Conde twenty years ago... The same happened with Spanish women, all of them seemed to be standardised in their clothing and behaviour. When will they evolve (if ever), especially the men?

Just a last remark concerning the airport in Wroclaw. It is rather small and it only has a duty-free shop. That shop mainly sells alcoholic drinks, which were massively bought by the Polish taking a plane. When I say massively I mean several bottles per customer. It reminded me of a similar situation in the ferry from Tallin (in Estonia) to Helsinki.

On the financial crisis

It has been long time since I last wrote about the financial crisis and that could make somebody think that all the big mess is over. Wrong assumption. In the last days, we have witnessed some movements in the financial crisis, which are taking the situation close to the darkest days of 2008, when Lehman collapsed bringing the whole financial system close to collapse as well. Differently to 2008, the core of the crisis is situated now on the European Union. But let's put some thoughts together in relation to the most recent chapters of this novel.

The largest and most urgent problem now is the solvency of Greece and, by extension, the survival of the euro (the second currency in the world after the dollar). Regarding the Greek tragedy, there are critic opinions from some countries (let's call them "AAA-countries") which demand tremendous austerity measures in exchange of some financial aid, with interests beyond 5% (more than aid, I would call this loans). At the same time, Greece must reduce its indebtedness radically in the short-term. In one word, we are asking Greece to achieve the impossible: with such strong austerity measures we are killing the potential growth of the Greek economy and then the Governement cannot get revenues from the taxes and the indebtedness rises and we demand more austerity measures and... It is true that for years Greece was not an example of efficiency and productivity but, on the other hand, they are asked the impossible.
The AAA-countries argue that these austerity measures are some kind of punishment for Greece, which was living on credit beyond its possibilities up to now. The latter is absolutely true but, in my opinion, one should be more pragmatic in this issue. First of all, almost everybody agree with the fact that Greece should never have entered into the euro area, because it did not meet the criteria in Maastricht. Once this mistake is made, there is no point in going around it any more. By the way, these AAA-countries also benefited largely from the inclusion of Greece in the monetary union and their banks were quite eager to enter into businesses in Greece. In a monetary union, what happens to that country has the characteristic of being quickly passed to the other members of the union and that is what European policymakers should look at first. What is at risk is the European Union, not a single country, and the short-sighted solutions defined by European leaders seem not to be fully aware of the situation. It is necessary to flood Greece with money, so that it can meet their commitmments and to make disappear the doubts about some other European countries (Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium and even France).

Lastly, let me conclude with a short reference to the "competition" between Spain and Italy. Some years ago, on the top of the bubble, Spain overtook Italy in the measure of GDP per capita, what was received with joy in Spain and in Italy with a lot of concerns about the methodology of the data used to measure the GDP per capita. At the beginning of the crisis, it seemed that Spain was the next country after Portugal, but latest developments in the markets have dramatically changed this perception: CDS spreads and spreads with the German Bund are higher in Italy than in Spain, with a tendency to widen this gap. In other words, now it is Italy the next one in the queue. Needless to say, such a situation is simply unacceptable for some Italian colleagues of mine, who are now shocked when they see their country behind Spain. A small victory for us, but victory, je, je, je.

I mercati finanziarii del XXI secolo

La settimana scorsa ho frequentato un corso d'estate su "Behavioural Finance" a Madrid, per Harrison Hong. Secondo me, questa crisi ha mostrato che i modelli e le teorie economiche classiche non servono a modellare la realtà economica. Una nuova linea di pensiero economico e questa di "behavioural finance", dove si guarda il comportamento degli agenti nei mercati finanziarii da una prospettiva diversa: non come un agente razionale chi cerca di diversificare il rischio ma come un agente soziale, sotto la influenza degli altri.

Cosí, gli agenti non entrano nel mercato perchè cercano una certa diversificazione dei rischi o per assegnare capitale. La principale ragione è semplice: entrano nel mercato a scommettere, a guadganare dei soldi e andarsene via. Quindi, può spiegarsi la crescita nella rotazione dei titoli nei mercati o la maggior partecipazione delle famiglie, per non menzionare fenomeni come il "high frequency trading". Una parola molto importante in questo mondo è "momentum", che significa entrare nel mercato, in periodi di tempo molto brevi, per approfitarsi della tendenza negativa o positiva, ma con l'unico obiettivo di guadagnare un piccolo margine.

Anche, ci sono modelli che provano a spiegare comportamenti come i manager che non capiscono le transazioni nelle quale è messa sua banca ma che vengono fatte per imitazioni di "guru" delle finanze o per iniziativa dei colleghi più intelligenti che i manager. In 2008, sono molti a dire che i manager delle banche americane più importanti non riuscivano a capire i rischi delle loro banche, dopo averle imbarcate nei transazioni complesse con i derivati. Altri teorie e modelli si concentrano su spiegare la influenza degli amichi e della famiglia nelle decisioni di inversione o su la formazione di bolle nei mercati o nel credito bancario.

Per saperne più: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics e http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/.

Nuevos puntos de vista

Esta semana pasada he estado en Madrid por motivos de trabajo. Por las mañanas he tenido una serie de reuniones mientras que por las tardes he asistido a un seminar de Harrison Hong (http://www.princeton.edu/~hhong/, no confundir con Harrison Ford, juas, juas, juas) sobre Behavioural Finance. Ha sido realmente una sensación nueva para mí estar en Madrid alojado en un hotel, pudiendo tener una perspectiva de la ciudad, más cercana a lo que un turista ve.

Bajo el nombre de Behavioural Finance se engloba una nueva corriente de pensamiento económico que cuestiona la hipótesis de los mercados eficientes y que trata de explicar los movimientos en los mercados financieros partiendo de comportamientos sociales de las personas y tomando como base que todos nosotros entramos en los mercados a especular. La crisis actual ha puesto en duda algunos de los principios básicos de la teoría económica de los últimos tiempos y esta nueva rama de la economía parece haber surgido con fuerza para contestar algunas de las preguntas que todos nos formulamos. Este curso me ha permitido por unos días cambiar el chip y adoptar un punto de vista diferente, después de estar tanto tiempo centrado en temas más prácticos.
Por otra parte, estos días he estado descubriendo Madrid como turista. Por primera vez en muchos años, he pasado al parque del Retiro y su estanque. No me llevo una imagen muy grata del evento, porque había dos personas a voces y no tenían muchas ganas de dar por terminada su discusión sobre quién estaba alimentando a las palomas. Mucho me temo que igual siguen por allí, dándose voces e insultándose (algo muy español, por cierto). También me he acercado, aunque desde fuera, a los Museos del Prado (la ampliación le da un aspecto realmente soberbio) y Thyssen, así como a la Plaza de la Lealtad, al Paseo de Recoletos y la Glorieta de Cibeles.

He encontrado, no sé si por el cambio de perspectiva antes mencionado, una ciudad diferente en muchos sentidos: más abierta al turismo, más consciente de su belleza (a destacar aquí la fachada del Palacio de Comunicaciones), más limpia, más segura (he visto policía por las calles) y más agradable para vivir. Pero esto no significa que me haya seducido del todo: hay cosas que mejorar y muchas.